Wish Upon a Shooting Star

It's been awhile since I've actually done a post. It's not my fault. I actually have a real job so I can support myself and it's been hectic over the past few months. If there has been one thing that has been consistent since my very first post, who knows what tomorrow will bring. However.....the difference now is that I am starting to see some bull wavering. Take a look at this chart. There a couple of things that strike me.

• Since the end up February the market is climbing at about 45 degrees. Clearly not a sustainable rate of change.
• The RSI is above the 70 mark so according to this technical indicator it is overbought and blah blah. As you can see we've hit this level two other times and we did see a hundred or two point drop. As anybody that knows anything about the RSI, being overbought doesn't mean it can't stay overbought and continue to climb. In short, it is overbought, but this doesn't exactly mean we should "go all" short.
• Recently we have been seeing some interesting candlesticks. First we have been seeing some small bodies indicating that the market pushed both up and down, but ended up about neutral. Given the incredible bull run we're in, any stall can be a good sign for the bears. Also, compared to the past few months, we have seen two days that high rather long upper shadows. Like before, this means that the bulls were shut down.
• Finally (and quickly), the MACD looks to be losing steam at a high level no less.

One other interesting trend I've noticed is that it looks like in the last, say third, of each month, we see a pause and a slight pullback. Interesting. I'm not sure it it can be profitably traded, but an interesting trend. Maybe related to options expiration?? Now after this analysis of the Dow, I would like to say, who cares about the Dow? Maybe 50 years ago or so it was a big deal, but now it doesn't mean much to be. It is 30 companies compared to the 500 in the S&P. It doesn't take a large stretch of the imagination to see how easy it is for a basket of huge companies to move together. It's like controlling a group of 30 kids compared to 500. Of course the group of 30 move more consistently with each other. But like they say, the bigger they are, the harder the fall. It maybe easier to move up, but it can fall down just as easy.